
Resolved No on 11 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98.2%. Yes opened at 62% on 4 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 62% on 4 Mar 2026 and the low 1.8% on 11 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 31% on 6 Mar 2026.
28 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 12, 8:15 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 8 points · 4 Mar 2026 – 11 Mar 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Mar 2026 | 62.0% |
| 11 Mar 2026 | 1.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bananas | Yes | 299.99 |
| 0xSuperRekt | Yes | 293.06 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 200 |
| 88mnm88 | Yes | 149.99 |
| peasantabuse | Yes | 117.42 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 100 |
| FortunateSuns | Yes | 52.19 |
| tiancs | Yes | 50 |
| asfdt22 | Yes | 50 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 48.97 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Somalia is announced or credibly reported to have occurred between market creation and the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land in the listed country’s territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and government sources. This market may remain open until the end of the third day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-strike-on-somalia-by-march-7-324
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