Analytics
Resolved No on 5 Feb 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 59.5% on 31 Jan 2024. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 31 Jan 2024 to 5 Feb 2024, the highest close was 59.5% on 31 Jan 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 4 Feb 2024. Its largest one-day move was 39 points down, to 2.3% on 2 Feb 2024. $111.92K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 26, 3:11 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 31 Jan 2024 – 5 Feb 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 31 Jan 2024 | 59.5% |
| 5 Feb 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mattyice25 | Yes | 64.96 |
| Gorgonzola | Yes | 43.19 |
| CarterAdams | No | 13.04 |
| mephit | Yes | 0.17 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
After a drone attack from Iranian-backed militias on a US military base killed 3 US troops on Jan 28, US President Biden vowed to "hold all those responsible to account at a time and in a manner our choosing." This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a US response to the drone attacks by January 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A response by the US refers to action(s) carried out by the US that are explicitly in response to Iran’s drone attack, which may include strikes, cyber attacks, sanctions, etc. The resolution source will be official sources from the US government, however a consensus of credible sources will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-response-to-irans-drone-attack-by-jan-31
| Ancountless | No | 0.01 |
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