Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 23.5% on 6 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 149 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 23.5% on 6 Aug 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 7 points down, to 16.5% on 7 Aug 2024. $875.85K traded over the market's life.
230 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 7:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 149 points, 6 Aug 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2024 | 23.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| BMB | Yes | 8.93K |
| EmporiumTools | Yes | 5.25K |
| MichaelFowlie | Yes | 5K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reports two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in the United States within the calendar year 2024, based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate. This includes any two successive quarters: Q1-Q2, Q2-Q3, or Q3-Q4. The determination will be based on the most recently released report by the BEA for each quarter. If GDP data for Q1, Q2, or Q3 is revised before the release of the Advance Estimate for Q4, the most recent revision available will be used for market resolution instead of the initial Advance Estimate. Revisions made after the release of the Q4 Advance Estimate will not be considered for any quarters, including Q4 itself. The primary resolution source for this market is the BEA’s official data on the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP, as available on their website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used if there is ambiguity in the official data.
Resolution source: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2024-1
| Yes |
| 3.61K |
| ChaoticPuzzle | Yes | 1.6K |
| MxT | Yes | 1.3K |
| joshua61 | Yes | 1.14K |
| k-cool | Yes | 1K |
| MrNGMI | Yes | 750 |
| 412412 | Yes | 722.66 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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