Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 4.5% on 19 Nov 2025. Before it settled, the high was 17.5% on 24 Nov 2025 and the low 0.1% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.1 points up, to 17.5% on 24 Nov 2025. $122.42K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 45 points, 19 Nov 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Nov 2025 | 4.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| HSL2025 | Yes | 9.82K |
| Wobbly-Female | Yes | 8.38K |
| Chileno901 | Yes | 8.17K |
| bravopueblo | Yes | 3.44K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, CIA, or any law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation intended to capture, detain, or take custody of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying operation’s objective must be to capture, imprison, detain, or otherwise take custody of Nicolas Maduro, as confirmed by either the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Direct U.S. personnel participation in an operation which succeeds in capturing Nicolas Maduro will also count, regardless of intention. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-operation-to-capture-maduro-in-2025
| defiarch | Yes | 2.76K |
| lllvwolk | Yes | 2.57K |
| Infinite-Celery | Yes | 1.6K |
| Mysterious-Composite | Yes | 1.47K |
| Faquarl | Yes | 1K |
| ale8c | Yes | 840 |
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