Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 8.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 8.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.2% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6.9 points down, to 1.7% on 16 Jan 2026. $100.94K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 8.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Accomplished-Replication | Yes | 2.44K |
| boombioof | Yes | 1.58K |
| Shocking-Melatonin | Yes | 1.44K |
| Marvelous-Ambience | Yes | 1K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On January 14, 2026, widespread internet and mobile service outages affected customers of major U.S. telecommunications providers, including Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, across multiple states. You can read more about that here: reuters.com/business/media-telecom/verizons-network-down-thousands-users-us-downdetector-shows-2026-01-14. This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is confirmed, by the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting, that the January 14, 2026, internet and mobile service outages were caused by, originating from, directed by, or officially attributed to Iran or any Iranian proxy by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Accusations from the U.S. government that are hedged or expressed with ambiguity (e.g., "We believe it was Iran") will qualify. However, purely speculative statements (e.g., "It could have been Iran") will not count. This market will resolve once official statements from the U.S. government , or a consensus of credible reporting, have clearly confirmed whether the January 14, 2026, outages were caused by an Iranian cyberattack. If the cause of the outages has not been attributed to Iran by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-mobileinternet-outages-caused-by-iran
| Phazonanon | Yes | 833.33 |
| HerroFolkz | Yes | 759.83 |
| Authorized-Hostel | Yes | 625 |
| Mbug1717 | Yes | 574.22 |
| kantocollect | Yes | 558.33 |
| Animated-Bargain | Yes | 555.56 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
