Analytics
Resolved No on 10 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 6.5% on 7 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 7 May 2025 to 10 May 2025, the highest close was 6.5% on 7 May 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 8 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 0.9% on 8 May 2025. $52.85K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 11, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 7 May 2025 – 10 May 2025, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 May 2025 | 6.5% |
| 10 May 2025 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WhiteLivesMatter | Yes | 2.5K |
| petar.nikolakov | Yes | 196.44 |
| Self-Assured-Benefit | No | 0.03 |
| bigboops | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between May 6 and May 9, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. U.S. intelligence, logistical support, or targeting assistance for another country’s attack on Yemen will not qualify. Only direct U.S. use of force on Yemeni territory counts. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-on-yemen-by-friday-may-9
| lestAAAA | No | 0.02 |
| 30XA | No | 0.01 |
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