Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 14% on 23 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 71 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 19.5% on 5 Nov 2024 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points down, to 8.5% on 8 Nov 2024. $495.16K traded over the market's life.
46 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 4:55 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 71 points, 23 Oct 2024 – 1 Jan 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Oct 2024 | 14.0% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Waltergargano | Yes | 7.8K |
| Ptolemyii | Yes | 1.01K |
| Punctual-Veranda | Yes | 700 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 21 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an U.S. missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-military-action-against-iran-in-2024
| Yes |
| 607.44 |
| jabbay25 | Yes | 598.35 |
| ArthurGreen | Yes | 475.03 |
| areyoumydeadhead | No | 117.36 |
| magnuspungkatt | Yes | 111.11 |
| Mr.crabz | Yes | 109.83 |
| ThisIsIt-751 | Yes | 102.04 |
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