Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 7 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 56 daily closes on record from 7 May 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 72.5% on 10 May 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 19 points down, to 50.5% on 17 May 2025. $471.57K traded over the market's life.
37 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 3, 12:26 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 56 points, 7 May 2025 – 1 Jul 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 May 2025 | 44.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 488 |
| PolyDude-384 | Yes | 300 |
| qwertzu | Yes | 90 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
On February 27, the Pentagon issued a directive to remove transgender service members from the military unless they receive an exemption (see: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/feb/27/transgender-us-military-personnel-pentagon-memo-stood-down-trump-administration) This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least 10 transgender service members are officially discharged or removed from the U.S. military due to this policy by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the policy is permanently canceled by the Trump administration before the removals occur, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution source will be official information form the Pentagon and Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-kicks-trans-members-out-of-military-before-july
| No |
| 82 |
| Biscuitzz | Yes | 47.17 |
| edwardcoleman | No | 38.56 |
| Anchivies | Yes | 35.09 |
| alane-628 | Yes | 29.5 |
| Overdue-Soccer | Yes | 20.83 |
| Ethancohh | No | 20.41 |
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