Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 21.5% on 10 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 57.3% on 18 Apr 2026 and the low 0.2% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 25% on 24 Mar 2026. $2.51M traded over the market's life.
526 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 6:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 31 points · 10 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2026 | 21.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Skinny-Class | Yes | 61.96K |
| Fantastic-Ptarmigan | Yes | 38.97K |
| Fair-Cup | Yes | 20K |
| troim | Yes | 15K |
| Brokie | Yes | 10K |
| 881112 | Yes | 7.01K |
| Ds88 | Yes | 5.83K |
| ethBELIVER | Yes | 5.82K |
| Colorless-Payment | Yes | 5.69K |
| wan123 | Yes | 3.14K |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-iran-nuclear-deal-by-april-30
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
