
Resolved No on 15 May 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 44.5%. Yes opened at 70% on 12 Apr 2024. Before it settled, across the 34 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2024 to 15 May 2024, the highest close was 83% on 24 Apr 2024 and the lowest 55.5% on 15 May 2024. Its largest one-day move was 9 points down, to 58% on 1 May 2024. $27.82K traded over the market's life.
Polymarket record as of May 16, 12:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 34 points, 12 Apr 2024 – 15 May 2024, chart shows 50%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2024 | 70.0% |
| 15 May 2024 | 55.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This is a market on a month-to-month inflation, as measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (CPI-U), from March to April 2024. Inflation is measured by a change in Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) on a seasonally adjusted basis, reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the index increased by more than 0.3 percent (on a seasonally adjusted basis) from March to April 2024 and “No“ otherwise. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS April 2024 Consumer Price Index report (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on May 15, 2024, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. ---- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports seasonally-adjusted month-to-month inflation to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.7%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market (e.g. if seasonally adjusted month-to-month CPI-U is 0.4%, the market will resolve to “Yes”, if it is 0.3%, this market will resolve to “No”).
Resolution source: https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-inflation-0pt3-from-march-to-april-2024
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