Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 17 Dec 2024. Before it settled, across the 16 daily closes on record from 17 Dec 2024 to 1 Jan 2025, the highest close was 32.5% on 17 Dec 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 14.5% on 18 Dec 2024. $220.84K traded over the market's life.
55 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 1:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 16 points, 17 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 17 Dec 2024 | 32.5% |
| 1 Jan 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| pepes27 | Yes | 4.25K |
| robbyd | Yes | 4.11K |
| Gorgeous-Gaming | Yes | 1.92K |
| Steel-Molding | Yes | 831.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. federal government or its agencies (such as the FBI, DHS, or DoD) release any definitive statement confirming that any of the "mystery drone" clusters sighted in New Jersey or other parts of the U.S. Northeast are anything other than airplanes by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No" Any confirmation indicating that the drones are airplanes, helicopters, or normal civilian air traffic will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. federal government.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-government-confirms-what-mystery-drones-are
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