Analytics
Resolved No on 19 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 30.5%. Yes opened at 33% on 4 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 4 Jul 2025 to 19 Sep 2025, the highest close was 83% on 6 Sep 2025 and the lowest 25.5% on 7 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 16 points down, to 35.5% on 28 Jul 2025. $64.35K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 12:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 4 Jul 2025 – 19 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jul 2025 | 33.0% |
| 19 Sep 2025 | 69.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
The CDC reported a general fertility rate of 54.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q1 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q2 2025 exceeds 54.5, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q2 2025 by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q2 2025, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-fertility-rate-up-in-q2-2025
| Yes |
| 53.13 |
| mateobodenlle | Yes | 36.11 |
| SanderHelgesen | No | 33.33 |
| MaliciousZero | No | 29.87 |
| funtime88 | Yes | 23.26 |
| Accrolyc | No | 14.49 |
| InThisUniverseImRight | Yes | 14.27 |
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