US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Jun 30, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$1.7K

Resolved

Settled

Jun 30, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 30 Jun 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 58.5%. Yes opened at 40% on 28 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 64 daily closes on record from 28 Apr 2026 to 30 Jun 2026, the highest close was 49.5% on 26 May 2026 and the lowest 5% on 4 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 36.3% on 5 Jun 2026. $1.66K traded over the market's life.

12 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jul 1, 3:33 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 64 points, 28 Apr 2026 – 30 Jun 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Apr 2026	40.0%
30 Jun 2026	41.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
52adsa	Yes	506.2
Deafening-Possible	Yes	150
TradeCrystal	Yes	62

10 of 12 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.