Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 3.5% on 4 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 29 daily closes on record from 4 Jan 2026 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 9% on 14 Jan 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Feb 2026. $111.6K traded over the market's life.
67 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 29 points, 4 Jan 2026 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Jan 2026 | 3.5% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| herewe | Yes | 1.97K |
| kjertu | Yes | 1K |
| 2117 | Yes | 896.01 |
| chaoticclimb | Yes | 833.33 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by-january-31
| gime | Yes | 555.56 |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile | Yes | 555.01 |
| Pristine-Vaulting | Yes | 500 |
| Husain1997 | Yes | 454.55 |
| Niki019 | Yes | 438.68 |
| betterbetterbetter | Yes | 424.78 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
