Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 17% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, the high was 27.5% on 30 Mar 2026 and the low 0.5% on 29 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 16 points up, to 27.5% on 30 Mar 2026. $34K traded over the market's life.
34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 11:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 30 points · 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 17.0% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fero046 | Yes | 2.61K |
| D33pCynic | Yes | 516.63 |
| endo2 | Yes | 400.12 |
| naggingbets | Yes | 333.33 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-evacuates-baghdad-embassy-by
| AltairRussia | Yes | 294.5 |
| letsgo33 | Yes | 261.87 |
| Understated-Health | Yes | 222.97 |
| ZachB66 | Yes | 217.43 |
| agrippa2712 | Yes | 171.68 |
| BuiAE | Yes | 100.27 |
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