Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jun 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 34.5% on 12 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 51 daily closes on record from 12 Apr 2025 to 1 Jun 2025, the highest close was 55% on 15 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Jun 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 55% on 15 Apr 2025. $326.26K traded over the market's life.
42 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 2, 8:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 51 points, 12 Apr 2025 – 1 Jun 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 12 Apr 2025 | 34.5% |
| 1 Jun 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade and/or tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the European Union between April 10, and May 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and EU as parties, even if they also involve other countries will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the European Union, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-eu-trade-deal-before-june-849
| Gripping-Negligee | Yes | 424.63 |
| edeko | Yes | 273.37 |
| cristhake | Yes | 181.07 |
| Adrianm | Yes | 125 |
| Rosol | Yes | 125 |
| jeremyvandort | Yes | 100 |
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