Analytics
Resolved Yes on 17 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 11 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 11 Apr 2025 to 17 May 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 17 May 2025 and the lowest 32.5% on 11 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 63 points up, to 99.9% on 17 May 2025. $88.64K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 8:20 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 11 Apr 2025 – 17 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Apr 2025 | 32.5% |
| 17 May 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Nmingo95 | No | 1K |
| moiswetik | No | 171.61 |
| Excellent1337-339 | No | 90 |
| Perfumed-Simplicity | No | 77.97 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point between April 9 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-debt-downgrade-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| fsbxx | No | 15.2 |
| Rothingham | Yes | 11.9 |
| undrscrH | No | 2.69 |
| aidentika | Yes | 0.03 |
| SuARas | No | 0.02 |
