Analytics
Resolved Yes on 19 Oct 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 35% on 3 Aug 2024. Before it settled, across the 78 daily closes on record from 3 Aug 2024 to 19 Oct 2024, the highest close was 100% on 19 Oct 2024 and the lowest 3.6% on 17 Oct 2024. Its largest one-day move was 96 points up, to 100% on 19 Oct 2024. $204.19K traded over the market's life.
61 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 20, 1:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 78 points, 3 Aug 2024 – 19 Oct 2024
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Aug 2024 | 35.0% |
| 19 Oct 2024 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| politicautisem | No | 193.97 |
| Tyrannicus | Yes | 73.53 |
| noSpoon | No | 53.76 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between August 2, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, and October 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-by-october
| Yes |
| 45.45 |
| BigWickEnergy | Yes | 40.91 |
| Coolioshades | Yes | 38.46 |
| lucius-centurio | No | 27.4 |
| Powerful-Stair | Yes | 20.83 |
| cheesetart | No | 14.93 |
| ftyeerwewr234werw | No | 6.25 |
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