Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2024.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 2 Jul 2024. Before it settled, across the 62 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2024 to 1 Sep 2024, the highest close was 21.5% on 24 Jul 2024 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Sep 2024. Its largest one-day move was 5 points down, to 11.5% on 14 Jul 2024. $121.13K traded over the market's life.
24 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 2, 4:13 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 62 points, 2 Jul 2024 – 1 Sep 2024, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2024 | 19.5% |
| 1 Sep 2024 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Fantomas | Yes | 650 |
| marinerex | Yes | 294.12 |
| marky-mark | Yes | 45.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between June 30, 2024, 12:00 PM ET, and August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.
Resolution source: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-bank-failure-before-september
| Yes |
| 5.88 |
| Jovialgent | Yes | 5.56 |
| jkhomme9 | Yes | 0.56 |
| jkhomme3 | Yes | 0.56 |
| jkhomme2 | No | 0.12 |
| Single-Immigration | Yes | 0.09 |
| Psy0nGlow | No | 0.08 |
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