US bank failure before December?

Resolved

No, settled Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$145.7K

Resolved

Settled

Dec 1, 2024 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Dec 2024.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 23 Oct 2024. Before it settled, across the 40 daily closes on record from 23 Oct 2024 to 1 Dec 2024, the highest close was 28% on 25 Oct 2024 and the lowest 0.3% on 30 Nov 2024. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 28% on 25 Oct 2024. $145.74K traded over the market's life.

31 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 7:01 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 40 points, 23 Oct 2024 – 1 Dec 2024, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
23 Oct 2024	19.5%
1 Dec 2024	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
jenik	Yes	1.91K
Bluechip	Yes	321.42
Senshi	No	240.96
mrgrillyogirll	Yes	90.91

10 of 31 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any US bank fails between October 22, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and November 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (according to FDIC's "Failed Bank List"). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes", the bank's closing date as listed by the FDIC must be within the listed date range. If there is a potential bank failure within this market's date range and FDIC "Failed Bank List" has not been updated yet, this market may remain open to allow for the list to be updated. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), specifically the "Failed Bank List" available here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ however other official statements from the FDIC and government entities will suffice.