Analytics
Resolved Yes on 30 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 73%. Yes opened at 56% on 23 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 23 Dec 2025 to 30 Dec 2025, the highest close was 73% on 30 Dec 2025 and the lowest 48.5% on 24 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 17 points up, to 73% on 30 Dec 2025. $36.79K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 31, 8:37 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 23 Dec 2025 – 30 Dec 2025, chart shows 40%–80%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 23 Dec 2025 | 56.0% |
| 30 Dec 2025 | 73.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Trusty-Towel | No | 2.92K |
| duderr | No | 1.11K |
| tindache | No | 638.34 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 329 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conducts a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-strikeoperation-on-foreign-soil-by-march-31
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 203 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | No | 153 |
| Jade Harbor B075 | No | 104 |
| t189 | No | 100 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 97 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 66 |
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