Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 52.5% on 24 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 39 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 73% on 25 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.9% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 25 points up, to 43.5% on 14 Nov 2025. $145.56K traded over the market's life.
86 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Dec 2, 8:34 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 39 points, 24 Oct 2025 – 1 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 52.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 0.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| iwantasianwomen | Yes | 8.94K |
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 2.19K |
| Mahalex4 | Yes | 1.38K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conducts a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation, which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting, will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government; however, an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-november-30
| Yes |
| 764 |
| Carterkeith | Yes | 468.47 |
| Antoine1 | Yes | 301.06 |
| marok | Yes | 175.44 |
| jabreu | Yes | 167.6 |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | Yes | 144 |
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