Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 100%. Yes opened at 72% on 24 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 73 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2025 to 3 Jan 2026, the highest close was 100% on 2 Jan 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 63 points up, to 99.5% on 31 Dec 2025. $6.16M traded over the market's life.
318 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 4, 8:27 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 73 points, 24 Oct 2025 – 3 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2025 | 72.0% |
| 3 Jan 2026 | 100.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| MoistCashew | No | 231.88K |
| OFJK | No | 227.37K |
| ExternalUser | No | 172.58K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (military, DEA, CIA, or any other agency) directly participates on the ground in an anti-cartel operation or conducts a kinetic strike directed against a cartel on foreign soil by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. personnel must directly participate to qualify. U.S. personnel involved in intelligence, surveillance, logistical, support, or advisory roles will not count. Only direct U.S. participation which is either confirmed by the U.S. Government or an overwhelming consensus of reporting will count. For example, previous operations such as the 2014 capture of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán, in which U.S. forces were rumored to have been embedded with Mexican Marines, would not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government, however an overwhelming consensus of reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-anti-cartel-operation-on-foreign-soil-by-december-31
| No |
| 105.29K |
| Hell12 | No | 105.12K |
| Deafening-Psychology | No | 47.14K |
| Humiliating-Phrase | No | 29.17K |
| Bumpy-Troop | No | 26.58K |
| dotanno | No | 25.71K |
| Messy-Shadow | No | 25K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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