Analytics
Yes is at 40%, down 11 points from 51% when the market opened on 4 Sep 2026.
Across the 52 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2026 to 28 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 52.5% on 24 Oct 2026 and the lowest 39.5% on 15 Sep 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 40%; a month before, 41.5%. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 40% on 5 Sep 2026.
The order book holds $95.02, with a 66.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 65 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 28, 3:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 52 points, 4 Sep 2026 – 28 Oct 2026, chart shows 35%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Sep 2026 | 51.0% |
| 28 Oct 2026 | 40.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government announces that it has intervened in the foreign exchange market to support the Japanese yen between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying announcement must establish that (i) the United States purchased Japanese yen in the foreign exchange market and (ii) the purchase was undertaken as an exchange-rate intervention, whether stated explicitly or clearly established through context. The intervention may be unilateral or coordinated with other governments, but the United States must participate directly. Any qualifying announcement made within this market's time frame will count, provided the underlying yen purchase occurred after July 31, 2026. Statements of concern, readiness, or intent to intervene; swap lines or other currency arrangements absent a qualifying yen purchase; and intervention by other governments without US participation will not qualify. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. Resolution will be based on official statements from the US Treasury, Federal Reserve, White House, or their official representatives acting in an official capacity.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-announces-another-yen-intervention-byptptpt
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