Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 26 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 161 daily closes on record from 26 Jul 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 37.5% on 26 Jul 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 17.5% on 27 Jul 2025. $100.29K traded over the market's life.
85 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:02 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 161 points, 26 Jul 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 Jul 2025 | 37.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Yootarchy | Yes | 637.43 |
| dsuri | Yes | 521.28 |
| NEGAHCHECHALAGA | Yes | 500 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States between July 25, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Th Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-new-trade-deals-with-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| PCMTest | Yes | 500 |
| espressodoppio | Yes | 499 |
| abcd12345 | Yes | 461.34 |
| trump-it | Yes | 416.16 |
| Etherion | Yes | 410.7 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 381.22 |
| Cold-Discrepancy | Yes | 363.88 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
