Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Feb 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 27% on 18 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 46 daily closes on record from 18 Dec 2025 to 1 Feb 2026, the highest close was 27% on 18 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.2% on 1 Feb 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 8.7% on 19 Dec 2025. $244.53K traded over the market's life.
64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 46 points, 18 Dec 2025 – 1 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Dec 2025 | 27.0% |
| 1 Feb 2026 | 0.2% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not. Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify. The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-signs-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31
| Yes |
| 398.18 |
| Great-Extremist | Yes | 386.55 |
| kamarat | Yes | 300 |
| mr.fickus | Yes | 238.1 |
| Substantial-Bladder | Yes | 222.53 |
| ProbablyPomPom | Yes | 200 |
| gubn0r | Yes | 196.47 |
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