Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 50% on 9 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 168 daily closes on record from 9 Apr 2026 to 1 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 9 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28.5% on 10 Apr 2026. $27.27K traded over the market's life.
29 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 1, 7:27 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 168 points, 9 Apr 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Apr 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| sdfeeeeq | Yes | 3.42K |
| Crypto-Well | Yes | 3.34K |
| AltairRussia | Yes | 355.77 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a peace referendum on the Russo-Ukrainian war is officially scheduled in Ukraine by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A peace referendum for the Russo-Ukrainian war refers to any nationwide vote relating to peace in the Russo-Ukrainian war or over a peace deal to end the war. A qualifying referendum will be considered to be scheduled once a date for the referendum to take place has been officially scheduled and publicly announced by a relevant Ukrainian government authority with the legal jurisdiction to do so. Once a qualifying referendum has been scheduled, this market will resolve to “Yes.” Subsequent legal challenges or other challenges to the legitimacy of the referendum will not affect resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-calls-a-referendum-on-peace-deal-with-russia-by-january-31
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 226.46 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 162.5 |
| Unwelcome-Licensing | Yes | 161.36 |
| Deafening-Possible | Yes | 150 |
| 74744886D1081ab236510E04c5b617b914A3Cef7. | Yes | 150 |
| sejzura | Yes | 110 |
| Peppery-Strawman-Rhubarb | Yes | 51.19 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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