Analytics
Paper trading
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 10.5% on 30 Dec 2024. Before it settled, the high was 10.5% on 30 Dec 2024 and the low 0.1% on 31 Dec 2025. $245.33K traded over the market's life.
123 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 12:29 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 369 points, 30 Dec 2024 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Dec 2024 | 10.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| iwanttoliveasimplelife | Yes | 2.5K |
| jctrelles | Yes | 1K |
| Rabal | Yes | 716.89 |
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-joins-nato-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Anjun | Yes | 555.98 |
| 0xBNZ | Yes | 500 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 450 |
| doodle20 | Yes | 357.62 |
| minimaxm2 | Yes | 318.17 |
| jjjoever | Yes | 313.06 |
| Lothiriel | Yes | 285.71 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard