Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99%. Yes opened at 12.5% on 5 Nov 2025. Before it settled, across the 27 daily closes on record from 5 Nov 2025 to 1 Dec 2025, the highest close was 18% on 14 Nov 2025 and the lowest 1% on 1 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 8.5 points up, to 18% on 14 Nov 2025. $29.31K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 20, 1:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 27 points, 5 Nov 2025 – 1 Dec 2025, chart shows 0%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Nov 2025 | 12.5% |
| 1 Dec 2025 | 1.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 00000000AAAAAAAA | Yes | 1.06K |
| th47 | Yes | 422.25 |
| plombato | Yes | 215.6 |
| Bod110 | Yes | 124.61 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between August 25 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ukraine-hits-moscow-by-september-30
| Panzerprinz | Yes | 47.11 |
| Warmhearted-Close | No | 33.01 |
| cronyte | Yes | 20 |
| Handy-Lycra | Yes | 17.24 |
| doubletwo | Yes | 12.5 |
| CAIUS-III | No | 10.5 |
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