Ukraine agrees to resume Russian natural gas transit in January?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 1, 2025 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$172.6K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 1, 2025 UTC

Topic roomOil, gold and commodities

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Feb 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 6% on 2 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 2 Jan 2025 to 1 Feb 2025, the highest close was 6% on 2 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Feb 2025. $172.65K traded over the market's life.

20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 2, 11:13 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 2 Jan 2025 – 1 Feb 2025, chart shows 0%–10%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Jan 2025	6.0%
1 Feb 2025	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
THard	Yes	2.62K
Michanel	Yes	540
Eugene420	Yes	285.71

10 of 20 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

On January 1, 2025, Ukraine halted the flow of Russian natural gas through the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline by declining to renew its transit agreement (see: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/01/world/europe/russia-ukraine-natural-gas-europe.html) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian government officially announces that it will allow the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory via any pipeline by January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Announcements indicating approval or agreements for resumption, even if the physical flow of gas has not yet commenced. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the Ukrainian government, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that Ukraine is allowing the transit of Russian natural gas via pipeline through its territory will also qualify.