Analytics
Yes is at 1.7%, down 8.3 points from 10% when the market opened on 28 Apr 2026.
Across the 178 daily closes on record from 28 Apr 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (9 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 10% on 28 Apr 2026 and the lowest 1.7% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.8%; a month before, 4%.
$28.91K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $17.49K, with a 1.4% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 213 trades, $884.68 bought Yes and $9.8K bought No; the largest was a $1.56K buy of No at 98.1¢.
The largest Yes position is Violet Pulse 821B with 4.6K shares; the largest No position is nelbal8486 with 3.4K. Ten wallets hold 74.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:39 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 178 points, 28 Apr 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–15%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Apr 2026 | 10.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 1.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Violet Pulse 821B | Yes | 4.6K |
| nelbal8486 | No | 3.37K |
| perico18 | Yes | 3.3K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United Kingdom formally announces the transfer of sovereignty over any area of the Falkland Islands to Argentina by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." An official announcement from the government of the United Kingdom confirming that sovereignty of any part of the Falkland Islands has been or will be legally and officially transferred to Argentina is required. Negotiations, announcements or claims solely from Argentina, or other actions which do not definitively announce the transfer of sovereignty over the Falkland Islands will not qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that the United Kingdom and Argentina have agreed to a binding agreement or legal instrument resulting in a defined area of the Falkland Islands coming under the formal sovereignty of Argentina will also qualify, even if the effective date of the sovereignty transfer occurs after the market deadline. The primary resolution source will be official government statements from the United Kingdom and Argentina; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/uk-announces-transfer-of-falklands-to-argentina-in-2026
| Betmeonce |
| Yes |
| 1.99K |
| Unsteady-Quinoa | No | 1.6K |
| AnCap.Investor | No | 1.42K |
| falcon174 | Yes | 1.19K |
| iHaveBeenPwned | No | 1.11K |
| Bobic | No | 805 |
| Artvanderlee | No | 787.13 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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