Analytics
Resolved No on 12 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 78.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 30 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 30 Aug 2026 to 12 Sep 2026, the highest close was 58.5% on 7 Sep 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 12 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 35% on 9 Sep 2026. $446.47 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 13, 11:13 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 30 Aug 2026 – 12 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 30 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 12 Sep 2026 | 21.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Arikius | Yes | 105.26 |
| colorfultortise11 | Yes | 100 |
| Dimpled-Hay | Yes | 40 |
| Thin-Sermon | Yes | 26.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Tommy McMillen and Marwan Rahiki at Noche UFC: Silva vs. Delgado, scheduled for September 12, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 26, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-tom15-mar93-2026-09-12
New to prediction markets?
| Thirsty-Breakpoint | Yes | 5 |
