Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Jun 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 83.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 26 May 2026. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 26 May 2026 to 15 Jun 2026, the highest close was 51.5% on 31 May 2026 and the lowest 16.5% on 15 Jun 2026. Its largest one-day move was 28 points down, to 20.5% on 10 Jun 2026. $669.25 traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 16, 1:48 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 26 May 2026 – 15 Jun 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 26 May 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Jun 2026 | 16.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Double-Emergency-Effort | Yes | 54.32 |
| Brief-Twitter | Yes | 40 |
| Infinite-Taxpayer | Yes | 20.83 |
| i-luv-MURICA | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Steve Garcia and Diego Lopes at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ste6-die4-2026-06-14
| Reflecting-Cellar | Yes | 20 |
| Unhealthy-Latex | Yes | 8.33 |
| KoolUnk | Yes | 7.69 |
| ShahRiazKhan | Yes | 5 |
| EdwardTeach | Yes | 5 |
| shahsports | Yes | 5 |
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