Analytics
Resolved No on 27 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 73.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 13 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 13 Sep 2026 to 27 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 16 Sep 2026 and the lowest 21.5% on 26 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 30.5% on 23 Sep 2026. $994.63 traded over the market's life.
8 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 28, 2:35 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 13 Sep 2026 – 27 Sep 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 13 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 27 Sep 2026 | 26.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| conqgs | Yes | 26.32 |
| real.tars | Yes | 20.79 |
| a5533 | Yes | 20 |
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 16.32 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Raoni Barcelos and Raul Rosas Jr. at UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos, scheduled for September 26, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 10, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-rao-rau2-2026-09-26
New to prediction markets?
| curie | Yes | 15 |
| TumbamBumrras | Yes | 5.41 |
| STEEZYZY | Yes | 3.45 |
| Ggnoree | Yes | 3.45 |
