Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 59.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 3 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 9 daily closes on record from 3 Oct 2026 to 11 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 3 Oct 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 11 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 8 points down, to 42% on 9 Oct 2026. $2.44K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 3 Oct 2026 – 11 Oct 2026, chart shows 35%–55%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 40.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zzqq35 | Yes | 909.09 |
| Neon Kestrel 2504 | Yes | 770.75 |
| SteadyC | Yes | 465.12 |
| Jade Scout EEB9 | Yes | 227.27 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Malcolm Wellmaker defeats Otari Tanzilovi at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ota-mwellm-2026-10-10
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| GaloDeCalca | Yes | 137.96 |
| Cosmic Tide AC8F | Yes | 93.02 |
| Excitable-Donation-App | Yes | 58.6 |
| Rapid Meteor C7B4 | Yes | 56.82 |
| Forecastication2 | Yes | 50 |
| andwhat | Yes | 40 |
