Analytics
Resolved Yes on 8 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 49.5%. Yes opened at 26% on 28 Feb 2026. Before it settled, the high was 49.5% on 8 Mar 2026 and the low 22.5% on 5 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points up, to 49.5% on 8 Mar 2026.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 9, 3:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 28 Feb 2026 – 8 Mar 2026, chart shows 10%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Feb 2026 | 26.0% |
| 8 Mar 2026 | 49.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Safe-Waterskiing | No | 24.98 |
| Jade Orbit C72A | No | 23.73 |
| sirmisterk | No | 6.45 |
| Oakledger | No | 5 |
| ZSM4736326 | No | 5 |
| Veltrona453 | No | 5 |
| M81Lx | No | 5 |
| shahsports | No | 5 |
| Vague-Parade | No | 5 |
| Negative-Millet | No | 1.35 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drew Dober defeats Michael Johnson at UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2, scheduled for March 7, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 21, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mic4-dre-2026-03-07
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