Analytics
Resolved No on 20 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 82%. Yes opened at 50% on 6 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 6 Sep 2026 to 20 Sep 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 10 Sep 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 19 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28.5% on 15 Sep 2026. $487.04 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 21, 12:46 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 6 Sep 2026 – 20 Sep 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 20 Sep 2026 | 18.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| tAir7 | Yes | 238.1 |
| Dimpled-Hay | Yes | 170 |
| Love.thy.neighboe | Yes | 26.32 |
| TheKingos | Yes | 15.79 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marlon Vera and Charles Jourdain at UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2, scheduled for September 19, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 3, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar8-cha3-2026-09-19
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