Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 68%. Yes opened at 50% on 20 Sep 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 20 Sep 2026 and the low 27% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points down, to 27% on 30 Sep 2026.
Polymarket record as of Oct 3, 9:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 3 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 32.0% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marvin Vettori and Ismail Naurdiev at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026, ends by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mar15-ism-2026-10-03
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