Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69.5%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 2 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 44% on 5 Aug 2026 and the low 30.5% on 16 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points down, to 36.5% on 12 Aug 2026. $6.66K traded over the market's life.
33 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 3:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 15 points · 2 Aug 2026 – 16 Aug 2026 · axis zoomed to 25%–50%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | 43.5% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 30.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| billy578 | Yes | 796.34 |
| 4751346 | Yes | 565.28 |
| nbafan88 | Yes | 459 |
| Coral Quasar 96DD | Yes | 405.41 |
| methamphetamine | Yes | 385.88 |
| 999shashumga | Yes | 250 |
| misteroogway | Yes | 137.62 |
| Pointless-Stepdaughter | Yes | 100 |
| Humiliating-Cofactor | Yes | 100 |
| SrFrancisco | Yes | 91.96 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Mackenzie Dern and Gillian Robertson at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-mac1-gil-2026-08-15
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