Analytics
Resolved No on 15 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 81%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Aug 2026. Before it settled, the high was 50% on 7 Aug 2026 and the low 19% on 15 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 19% on 15 Aug 2026. $96.96 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 16, 10:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 9 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 15 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 15 Aug 2026 | 19.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| TheKingos | Yes | 28.39 |
| onzoweb3 | Yes | 5.83 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Lucas Fernando and Rafael Tobias at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-luc8-raf11-2026-08-15
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