Analytics
Resolved No on 25 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 55%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 6 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 20 daily closes on record from 6 Jan 2026 to 25 Jan 2026, the highest close was 53% on 21 Jan 2026 and the lowest 27.5% on 9 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 33.5% on 7 Jan 2026. $16.15K traded over the market's life.
58 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 26, 8:21 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 20 points, 6 Jan 2026 – 25 Jan 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Jan 2026 | 47.5% |
| 25 Jan 2026 | 45.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Chief-Irony | Yes | 5K |
| NikitAK-47 | Yes | 2.3K |
| Noisy-Extremist | Yes | 1.37K |
| Giangiusa | Yes | 279.4 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett at UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett, scheduled for January 24, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond February 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Resolution source: https://www.ufc.com/events
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-jus3-pad-2026-01-24
| Draggin | Yes | 231.67 |
| OutterSpaceBro | Yes | 217.39 |
| CJNG | Yes | 210 |
| Dismal-Chance | Yes | 208.33 |
| Emerald Sphinx 6938 | Yes | 200 |
| Gavin-Belson | Yes | 125 |
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