Analytics
Resolved Francisco Prado on 10 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Francisco Prado at 54.5%. The Ismael Bonfim side opened at 50% on 27 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2026 to 10 Oct 2026, the highest close was 60% on 1 Oct 2026 and the lowest 45.5% on 10 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 7.5 points up, to 57.5% on 29 Sep 2026. $608.62K traded over the market's life.
98 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 11, 11:29 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Ismael Bonfim price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 27 Sep 2026 – 10 Oct 2026, chart shows 40%–65%
| Observed | Ismael Bonfim price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 10 Oct 2026 | 45.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Elaran1993 | Ismael Bonfim | 29.15K |
| JohnnyWins | Ismael Bonfim | 5.45K |
| Vivid-Roadway-Escalator | Ismael Bonfim | 2.76K |
| Madeira99 | Ismael Bonfim |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Ismael Bonfim" if Ismael Bonfim is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francisco Prado at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026. It will resolve to "Francisco Prado" if Francisco Prado is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-ism1-fra10-2026-10-10
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| 2.44K |
| Kuntro2 | Ismael Bonfim | 1.94K |
| sts22 | Ismael Bonfim | 1.5K |
| user921123 | Ismael Bonfim | 1.37K |
| GambleFroth | Ismael Bonfim | 1.25K |
| darkumbreon88 | Ismael Bonfim | 1.24K |
| Mst-br | Ismael Bonfim | 1.14K |
