Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 11 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50.5% on 13 Oct 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 24 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 28% on 20 Oct 2026. $52.63 traded over the market's life.
3 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 25, 4:18 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 11 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 50.0% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Crimson Scout C29D | Yes | 50.13 |
| Freepali48 | Yes | 42.11 |
| cracp | Yes | 5.26 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nurullo Aliev defeats Grant Dawson at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-gra-nur-2026-10-24
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