Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94%. Yes opened at 43.5% on 2 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 2 Aug 2026 to 16 Aug 2026, the highest close was 44% on 5 Aug 2026 and the lowest 6% on 16 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 8.5% on 15 Aug 2026. $330.4 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 1:38 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 2 Aug 2026 – 16 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 2 Aug 2026 | 43.5% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 6.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| roneasy | Yes | 142.86 |
| rhodododendron | Yes | 100 |
| d33nv3r | Yes | 6.67 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Edson Barboza and Esteban Ribovics at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-eds-est1-2026-08-15
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