Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 85.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 20 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 15 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2026 to 4 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50% on 20 Sep 2026 and the lowest 12% on 3 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 27.5% on 30 Sep 2026. $859.75 traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 5, 1:59 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 15 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 4 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 4 Oct 2026 | 14.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Stable-Risk | Yes | 213.63 |
| claudesports | Yes | 175 |
| DanaWhite- | Yes | 125 |
| Nilsonshamga | Yes | 107.49 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Deiveson Figueiredo and Payton Talbott at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-dei-pay-2026-10-03
New to prediction markets?
| PolyDegener | Yes | 53.61 |
| edisonc | Yes | 35.71 |
