Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 84.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 20 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 14 daily closes on record from 20 Sep 2026 to 3 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 29 Sep 2026 and the lowest 15.5% on 3 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 26.5% on 30 Sep 2026. $68.99 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 4, 8:11 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 20 Sep 2026 – 3 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 3 Oct 2026 | 15.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| neutralwave23 | Yes | 24.36 |
| itsonlyamatteroftime | Yes | 19.28 |
| a5533 | Yes | 15.36 |
| jifidsisjdidf | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Court McGee and Eric Nolan at UFC 332: Silva vs. Wang, scheduled for October 3, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 17, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-cou-eri16-2026-10-03
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