Analytics
Resolved No on 24 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 94.5%. Yes opened at 50.5% on 11 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 12 daily closes on record from 11 Oct 2026 to 24 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51% on 12 Oct 2026 and the lowest 5.5% on 24 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 26.5% on 20 Oct 2026.
Polymarket record as of Oct 24, 6:28 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 12 points, 11 Oct 2026 – 24 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Oct 2026 | 50.5% |
| 24 Oct 2026 | 5.5% |
Polymarket lists no holders for this market.
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Colby Thicknesse defeats Asaf Chopurov at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026, by KO, TKO, or submission that ends the fight in Round 1, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." A stoppage between rounds, including a doctor or corner stoppage, counts as ending in the round that has just been completed. If the fight is won in a different round, is won by decision, ends in a draw, or is won by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-col12-asacho-2026-10-24
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