Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 61%. Yes opened at 50% on 7 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 7 Aug 2026 to 16 Aug 2026, the highest close was 52.5% on 10 Aug 2026 and the lowest 39% on 15 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 12 points down, to 39% on 15 Aug 2026. $2.06K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 17, 1:02 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 7 Aug 2026 – 16 Aug 2026, chart shows 35%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 50.0% |
| 16 Aug 2026 | 39.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| StoleThat | Yes | 380.65 |
| Insistent-Souvenir-Comedy | Yes | 272.8 |
| GooberThaGooner | Yes | 97.44 |
| Thirsty-Breakpoint | Yes | 75 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Chidi Njokuani and Joel Álvarez at UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry, scheduled for August 15, 2026, ends by submission, including tapout, verbal submission, or technical submission (referee stoppage due to a submission hold). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 29, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-chi1-joe-2026-08-15
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