Analytics
Resolved No on 11 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 69%. Yes opened at 50% on 27 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 27 Sep 2026 to 11 Oct 2026 (2 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 50% on 27 Sep 2026 and the lowest 31% on 11 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 6 points down, to 31% on 11 Oct 2026. $1.12K traded over the market's life.
9 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 12, 2:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 27 Sep 2026 – 11 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–60%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 11 Oct 2026 | 31.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Wupa | Yes | 619.74 |
| Excitable-Donation-App | Yes | 160.41 |
| Rapid Meteor C7B4 | Yes | 147.06 |
| Crimson Orbit F437 | Yes | 91.91 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Christian Leroy Duncan defeats Brendan Allen at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan, scheduled for October 10, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond October 24, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-bre1-chr20-2026-10-10
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