Analytics
Resolved No on 29 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.5%. Yes opened at 49% on 22 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 22 Aug 2026 to 29 Aug 2026, the highest close was 49% on 22 Aug 2026 and the lowest 6.5% on 29 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 26.5% on 25 Aug 2026. $477.65 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 30, 10:31 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 22 Aug 2026 – 29 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Aug 2026 | 49.0% |
| 29 Aug 2026 | 6.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Dimpled-Hay | Yes | 300 |
| TheKingos | Yes | 38.43 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
| Arpadex | Yes | 3.18 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nilson Rojas defeats Bilal Hasan at UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song, scheduled for August 29, 2026, by KO or TKO, including referee stoppage, doctor stoppage, or corner stoppage. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If the fight ends in a draw or by disqualification (either fighter), it will resolve "No." If the bout is ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond September 12, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/ufc-bhasan-nilroj-2026-08-29
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